MigScene Research Themes
MigScene operates on four research themes in collaboration with each other
Population and Migration Scenarios for Finland
Wolfgang Lutz
Väestöliitto
MigScene develops a multidimensional population projection model for Finland using Microsimulation.
The model will be based on
the internationally recognized approach developed
in IIASA.
The model will produce forecasts of the population by age, sex, education, and labor force status at the national and sub-national level up to year 2070. The model supports testing various policy-oriented scenarios such as changes in immigration levels, educational attainment, or internal mobility, and assesses their long-term impact on population outcomes at the subnational level.
The model is dynamic and
timebased and simulates transitions in individual
life trajectories.
Long-Term Economic Sustainability under Uncertain Population Dynamics
Mikko Myrskylä
University of Helsinki
The research theme puts forward probabilistic projections for public expenditure scenarios and demographic trends in Finland under alternative migration and human capital scenarios.
The aim is to analyze how migration-related scenarios affect long-term economic sustainability. More precisely, to what extent, investments in human capital can compensate for the long-run negative economic impact of low fertility.
This research deploys ELSI, the computational microsimulation model developed by the Finnish Centre for Pensions (ETK).
It includes a detailed implementation of the Finnish social security, pension, and labour market system.
Skilled Young Immigrants
Mirkka Danielsbacka
Univeristy of Turku
The research theme studies ways to attract and retain
skilled immigrants and their children, and the likely trajectories of employment, productivity and family formation of different immigrant groups.
The research will study all immigration groups in the population, with a focus on highly skilled immigrants, and particularly those who have come to Finland to study for an academic degree.
The research theme analyses family and kin networks of all immigrants in Finland during 1980–2025 using linked full‑population registers on family and extended kin relations, covering all migrant groups including internal migration and emigration.
Building Youth Capabilities
Anna Rotkirch
Väestöliitto
The research theme adopts a child-centered perspective on cognitive and wellbeing outcomes. Different age cohorts and generations have different economic and family realities which often get lost in statistics.
An important starting point is that better use of the vast and existing knowledge base of families, children, and youth is needed for cost-effective and timely
policy decisions. The research focuses on identifying child and youth wellbeing indicators that predict young adults’ capabilities.
Capabilities are understood as the social, cognitive, and developmental potential that enables the development of human capital and the freedom to lead different kinds of lives in adulthood.
