Science Leak: Declining birth rates are not the secret to growth
In his new Tietovuoto article Väestöliitto researcher Mauri Kotamäki responds to a much-discussed working paper by Daron Acemoglu and colleagues claiming that falling fertility has accelerated economic growth per worker. The article’s main argument is that the link is most likely correlation rather than cause: the countries where fertility fell early were also the ones that were modernising — educated populations, strong institutions, functioning economies — and those same features explain the later growth. The historical pattern describes a shift from high fertility toward replacement level, which says little about today’s situation of already very low birth rates. For Finland, where total fertility is around 1.3, the conclusion is that the paper gives no reason for relief: supporting families and preparing for an ageing population remain just as necessary as before.
